Choice & ConsequenceElection Day is Tuesday, Nov 3, 2026. These are races that three nonpartisan forecasters rate as close. Each card shows the ratings with dates, the last official result, and what a flip or a hold could mean, with sources. Ratings are forecasts, not results. We never tell you how to vote.
Ratings as of Oct 29–30, 2026. A rating marked Source needed means we did not find that forecaster's current rating for the race.
State with a Senate or governor race on this page
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority [Inside Elections]. Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats for a majority [Inside Elections][Cook].
Held by: R (Sullivan)
Last result: 2020: Sullivan (R) 53.90%, Gross 41.19%, margin R+12.7 [official]
A Democratic win here would count as one of the 4 net seats Democrats need [Cook].
A Republican hold keeps this seat in the 53-seat majority [Inside Elections].
Held by: R (open, Ernst)
Last result: 2020: Ernst (R) 51.74%, Greenfield (D) 45.15%, margin R+6.6 [official]
A Democratic win here would count as one of the 4 net seats Democrats need [Cook]. Sabato counts it among 5 Toss-ups, all Republican-held, of which Democrats need 2 [Sabato].
A Republican hold keeps this seat in the 53-seat majority [Inside Elections]. Republicans need 4 of Sabato's 5 Toss-ups to keep control [Sabato].
Held by: R (Marshall)
Last result: 2020: Marshall (R) 53.22%, Bollier (D) 41.79%, margin R+11.4 [official]
A Democratic win here would count as one of the 4 net seats Democrats need [Cook]. Sabato counts it among 5 Toss-ups, all Republican-held, of which Democrats need 2 [Sabato].
A Republican hold keeps this seat in the 53-seat majority [Inside Elections]. Republicans need 4 of Sabato's 5 Toss-ups to keep control [Sabato].
Held by: R (Collins)
Last result: 2020: Collins (R) 50.98%, Gideon (D) 42.39%, margin R+8.6 [official]
A Democratic win here would count as one of the 4 net seats Democrats need [Cook]. Sabato counts it among 5 Toss-ups, all Republican-held, of which Democrats need 2 [Sabato].
A Republican hold keeps this seat in the 53-seat majority [Inside Elections]. Republicans need 4 of Sabato's 5 Toss-ups to keep control [Sabato].
Held by: R (Husted)
Last result: 2022 (this seat): Vance (R) 53.03%, Ryan (D) 46.92%, margin R+6.1 [official]
A Democratic win here would count as one of the 4 net seats Democrats need [Cook]. Sabato counts it among 5 Toss-ups, all Republican-held, of which Democrats need 2 [Sabato].
A Republican hold keeps this seat in the 53-seat majority [Inside Elections]. Republicans need 4 of Sabato's 5 Toss-ups to keep control [Sabato].
Held by: R (open, Cornyn)
Last result: 2020: Cornyn (R) 53.51%, Hegar (D) 43.87%, margin R+9.6 [official]
A Democratic win here would count as one of the 4 net seats Democrats need [Cook]. Sabato counts it among 5 Toss-ups, all Republican-held, of which Democrats need 2 [Sabato].
A Republican hold keeps this seat in the 53-seat majority [Inside Elections]. Republicans need 4 of Sabato's 5 Toss-ups to keep control [Sabato].
Held by: D (open, Peters)
Last result: 2020: Peters (D) 49.90%, James (R) 48.22%, margin D+1.7 [official]
A Republican win would be a Republican gain. Democrats would then need to win 5 Republican-held seats to reach the net gain of 4 they need [Cook] (simple arithmetic from that figure).
A Democratic hold keeps this seat; Democrats would still need a net gain of 4 elsewhere [Inside Elections].
Held by: R (open, Kemp)
Last result: 2022: Kemp (R) 53.41%, Abrams (D) 45.88%, margin R+7.5 [official]
A Democratic win would add a governorship toward the majority of governorships Sabato says Democrats are close to, which they have not held since the 2010 elections [Sabato].
A Republican hold keeps this governorship with Republicans; Sabato lists Georgia as one of only two governor Toss-ups [Sabato].
Held by: R (Lombardo)
Last result: 2022: Lombardo (R) 48.81%, Sisolak (D) 47.30%, margin R+1.5 [official]
Held by: D (open, Kelly)
Last result: 2022: Kelly (D) 49.54%, Schmidt (R) 47.33%, margin D+2.2 [official]
Democrats need a net gain of 3 seats for House control [Inside Elections]. Cook rates 18 House races Toss Up: 14 held by Republicans and 4 by Democrats [Cook].
CA-22 CO-05 FL-14 FL-22 IA-02 KY-06 MI-04 MI-07 MI-10 MT-01 NC-01 NY-17 OH-07 PA-01 SC-01 TX-35 TX-15 VA-01
Last results by district: Source needed (we have not yet checked official 2024 district results for each one).
A net Democratic gain of 3 or more seats would change House control [Inside Elections].
With a net Democratic gain of fewer than 3, Republicans keep control [Inside Elections].
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